I explore how institutions are adapting to climate change with a public value framework, adapted from well-established diagnostic tools in government (see e.g. the Berber review and from Harvard Kennedy School).
The core idea is that effective conflict prevention will rest on three pillars: (i) Strategic foresight of how climate futures will interact with conflict dynamics; (ii) the system capacities to leverage that foresight and act on relevant issues; and (iii) legitimacy & support amongst stakeholders at all levels.
Empirically, I approach each of these pillars with a diagnostic framework that sets out specific empirical questions, and that is evolving over time based on institutional experiences.
The model adapts and applies decades of research on how institutions learn and act on emerging challenges. The key contributions* are from conflict dynamics, political ecology, science & technology studies, and critical futures studies.
(* Working paper and literature visualisations are forthcoming.)